The Effects of Climate Change on Forests Will Trigger Market Adapta- Tions in Forest Management and in Wood-products Industries and May Well Have Signjficant Effects on Forest-based Outdoor Recreation

S cientists have suggested that future climate change wil l s ignif icant ly affect the dis tr ibut ion, condit ion, species composit ion, and productivi ty of forests (Aber et al. 2001, Dale et al. 2001, Hansen et al. 2001, McNulty and Aber 2001). These biological changes wil l set in motion complex regional changes in supplies of wood to sawmills and paper mills, producing effects on market prices. In turn, landowners and consumers will adapt in ways that cause further feedback effects on forests. For some time, social scient is ts have been assessing the manifold implicat ions for social and economic welfare. In particular, they have been examining ways in which price responses to changing supplies cause timber growers, sawmills and pulpmills , producers, and consumers to adapt. This paper reviews this research, focusing on the forest benefits of t imber production and outdoor recreat ion. Analyzing these sectors involves quite different methods and issues because wood products are primarily producer goods that reach consumers through a complex marketing chain, whereas forest-recreation experiences are directly consumed by visitors. As part of the national assessment of climate change, a socioeconomic team (the authors of this art icle) assembled exist ing data and conducted l imited new analyses. In this short summary, many important topics must be left aside. THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON